No, they don't reinforce your point. Pinker's article in particular (the Edge one) flat-out disagrees. His whole article is that violence has been decreasing, on every scale from nation-states over millennia and centuries to homicides over decades, constantly and in every society. If you disagree with that, then please skim his article.
Oh, I see what you mean. Well, that's using statistics improperly. The deaths in tribal conflicts pile up over time. Only a fraction of each generation is killed in any one battle or war. Whereas in the World Wars, whole generations were essentially wiped out. Russia suffered 20 million deaths in WW2, primarily among men aged 18-25. The same thing happens to tribes, but it's over 50+ years. Eventually there are only a very few people left of any one generation, but by then there are new generations to replace them.
As for the decade and century long views, I discount every statistic about war past the year 1945. The invention of the atomic bomb changed how war was fought. The murder rates stats are interesting, though I'd like to see a stat for murder rates among tribal cultures.
I'm not trying to argue the noble savage here, I long ago stopped thinking of tribal cultures as inherently better than ours. I was merely pointing out a fact, that has been confirmed by these articles. For a very long time, the members of a tribal, hunter-gatherer society, were healthier than the members of a farming society. I was also saying that due to the nature of tribal life, within a tribe, the members cared more about each other than residents of the same city do. Both tribal and farming cultures are capable of being very inhumane to those they perceive as the "other".
My personal theory is that violence is largely a function of organisation. Larger and better-organised societies have less violence. The smaller the basic unit is, the more violence you see. The Spanish who went to South America were barbarous, but less so than the aboriginals who were there, not because their philosophy was better, just because they were parts of a larger unit.
Interesting, and certainly has some merit, though sometimes that organization just leads to organized violence.
Also, by your standard, it's not fair to call modern Western civilisation civilised, because surely there will come a time which will condemn some of our practices as barbarous. It's a fair point but I personally disagree, I think we can call Western Protestant civilisation civilised from the 17th century onward or so. But I think this is a personal thing, so I don't wish to bring that up as an argument.
We probably will be seen as barbarians by our descendants. However, I do agree with you to a certain extent.
I would just place the date of "civilized" further forward than you do, after all in the 1600s you still had some horribly inhumane things happening. The 30 Years War for example, which made rape, murder, and general pillaging a common and more or less accepted fact of life for the residents of the Germanies. The generals of the armies marching across the plains of Germany more or less wrote off these activities as "soldiers will be soldiers".
I find it hard to believe that plains medicine was more free from superstition than the European medicine -- nor that the European was better, obviously: mercury, leeches, bloodletting aren't scientific. In Africa the medicine-men were full of superstition rather than remedy, and it would surprise me if any culture had produced a halfway-decent system of medicine before the advent of science.
I didn't say more free from superstition, I was just saying it was more effective. Until science was applied to medicine in the Western world in the 1800s, there is only one culture that I know of who had a decent system of medicine that was practical, and not rooted in superstition. It wasn't exactly science, but it was as close as the ancient world got. I am, of course, talking about the Romans. It's been shown that they were using practices we use today in modern medicine. Many of these practices appear to have come from Greece, but Roman efficiency and practicality allowed them to be Empire-wide practices.
It's hard to compare lengths of time across time. The pace of history has been constantly accelerating. Our modern democracies, with the exception of the English-speaking countries (United Kingdom at ~350 years, United States at ~150 years, others at ~100 years -- counting from last civil war or independence) are none more recent than the Second World War.
I would say that the US deserves it's full lifespan of ~230 years. Our Civil War did not see a complete breakdown in society, as has been the case in so many others. Yes, the US split in half for a period of several years, but both sides still clung to the basic ideals on which the nation was founded, and the US government itself was not overthrown. England's last civil war, on the other hand, saw a regicide and the installation of a "Lord High Protector".
Other than that though, I agree with your point.
It's hard to say, it's possible that democracy will some day wane and some other form of government take over, though I hope not. Even in the past, really stable empires like the Roman empire required some liberalism (including the rule of law). On the other hand, the balance of power, which swung towards the lower and middle classes right up until a peak around the Second World War has started shifting back towards the upper classes in the last 30-40 years. What do you think?
I think the pendulum, as always, is going to swing back and forth. The balance of power at the turn of the century was pretty well consolidated in the hands of the upper classes. That time period saw an even greater disparity between rich and poor than we see today. I'm not sure about democracy, but I think that for as long as we are confined to just this planet, it's going to remain the dominant form of government. If we spread to the stars, the conditions that allowed Empires and Kingdoms to be successful in the past might re-emerge, and democracy might wane.
It is said that when Rincewind dies, the occult ability of the human race will go UP by a fraction. -Terry Pratchett