Ahem... on WWII

[The Beatles]

If he had gone after it fast enough, those preparations would have been caught half done, which would make those preparations almost as useless as if they never happened at all.

The Home Fleet was available, but the question is, could it have gone out to meet the Germans fast enough when they started their attack? Also, could the Home Fleet have defended itself against the Luftwaffe bombers that would not have been needed to suppress the RAF? The Luftwaffe could have achieved local air superiority just through sheer force of numbers, if they really needed to in order to protect the troop ships.

Basically I'm saying that if the Germans got a foothold and weren't dislodged very quickly, (which I believe is quite possible for them to have done, even your article doesn't totally deny that possibility) the British would have lost quite soon afterwards.

Now that we've got rid of persie for this argument...

I don't think "sheer force of numbers" is a terribly good argument in the long term. The more forces you throw at something, the greater your losses are: if your assumption were true, any battle in the world could be won by a one-time simple numerical superiority. To put it another way, you say the Luftwaffe could have protected the troop ships by sheer force of numbers. If that is true, why couldn't the Royal Navy prevent the troop ships by sheer force of numbers?

The article states that the most likely scenario in a full-blown attack would have been a local German superiority, followed by the Royal Navy moving in before enough supplies could have been shipped (i.e. armor) to consolidate the victory. Unarmored and undefended, even with ever so much air support (and don't forget, planes still have to fly from France and have a laughable air-time, captured pilots are out, etc.) no beachhead can stand.

BTW, it's not "my article". My sources are various, but WP sums the knowledge in main up pretty well. I never post a WP link I haven't reviewed thoroughly. Also, gotta give the Sandhurst demoers some credit.

[Gen. Volkov]

Long term no, but short term, overwhelming numbers will win battles. And the reason the Royal Navy couldn't do it is because they didn't have the overwhelming numbers in the right places available to move fast enough to intercept the ships. In absolute numbers term sure, but local overwhelming force would have been harder to achieve quickly. Airplanes scoot around a battlefield much faster than ships do. There are many battles throughout history that have been won because one side heavily outnumbered the other and used that overwhelming force correctly. The Brits just did not have the firepower to repel a mass attack by the Luftwaffe.

I call it your article simply because you found it, no offense is intended.

The article does presuppose that the Germans don't invade right away, that the Brits have time to prepare there defenses. It also underestimates something I think is very key, the lack of a decent British tank. Ground forces can only do so much to hold off tanks, and the few days projected in the article that the Germans would have would give the Germans enough time to land tanks. Maybe not alot, but enough to make a difference, in the face of basically no opposition.

If the Germans could capture even one airbase, or even just an area suitable to create one, it would change the whole picture. The Luftwaffe would get a foward air base, and supplies could be flown in, instead of shipped in. (That includes some smaller tanks and most of their armored fighting vehicles. There was a glider that could have done the job, it was later converted into a gigantic cargo plane, this would allow the Germans to pursue there perferred form of mechanized combat.) Plus, a German air base in England means unrelenting attacks on the Royal Navy. Eventually they would drive them off, allowing the second, much bigger wave to come in over the sea, which would spell the end.

I did read the article, and I agree that their assessment is a likely scenario as well, but I think that a quick invasion would have favored the Germans. It would have kept the British off guard, and it was the German style to do so. I'm sure you've heard the expression, "fortune favors the bold", and the same principle is at work here. If you can keep the other guy on the defensive, and off-balance, you have a much better chance to deliver a knockout blow and win the whole thing in one fell swoop, rather than grinding it out over many long months. Not that I don't think the Germans couldn't have driven the RAF into collapse the way they chose if they had just stuck to the plan. England without any air force is just meat on the table. We saw that when the Allies landed at Normandy and had total air superiority. Alot of the German divisions past the beaches were wiped out before they even saw combat with Allied ground troops. There's no reason to think the Luftwaffe would be any less effective.

[The Beatles]

Well, if you presuppose a very early invasion, then in main I agree with you. I am not sure they could have kept that pace up though, considering most of their divisions in France were also at half-strength and wearied. (At points, forward divisions didn't move forward due to lack of fuel, not French resistance!) Also, I know your saying (I know a version "he who dares, wins"), but it's also true that raising the stakes raises your own risks.

But at any rate, I agree with you, an early invasion could have ended the war much more quickly, probably with a British defeat of some degree. (And as you said, once troops were there, it may have destabilized their democratic government.) Also, Russia was not in the war against Germany at that point -- in fact, the British at one point contemplated declaring war against Russia, as the Finnish planes were all Hurricanes and Spitfires anyway. So without the USSR and the USA, all Hitler would have had to deal with were the British and French Empires -- but those probably wouldn't have elected to wage the war in Europe after a double British and French surrender. Thus, probably a sort of Cold War, except entirely different blocs. All this is pure conjecture, of course.

[Gen. Volkov]

Yeah, but the divisions that ran out of fuel had already penetrated so far into France it didn't matter. They outran their supplies is what happened. It's one of the problems with blitzkrieg, you can get about 300 miles and then you have to stop for a bit and let the rest of the army catch up to you to resupply, then continue on. But it wouldn't have taken more than a week or two for the Germans to have consolidated their forces, resupplied everyone, got them some rest, and then struck out across the channel. You are right about raising the stakes raising the risks, but the stakes were at the highest point they could be already. War is pretty much the greatest gamble you can make, now sure, taking stupid risks in war will get you and your men killed in short order, but since war is already so risky, it requires a certain level of daring just to fight one. Being hesitant in war is just as deadly as foolhardiness.

Glad you see my point, and pretty much agree with me. And yeah, it would either have been a Cold War type scenario, or ended with Hitler controlling much of the world. Without Britain's thorn in his side, Russia would have been a much easier proposition. The Allied air campaign is likely what cost him air superiority and thus the war in Russia. Both as a diversion of resources away from the Russian front, and from a sheer destruction stand point, having to rebuild those factories and what not, it just all piled up. And he was forced to maintain a large army doing nothing on the shore of France, as well as build massive fortifications there to defend against a possible attack by the US and Britain. With Britain out of the picture, it all becomes so much simpler.

And the Japanese could have been carving off large chunks of the Empire as well, at least at first, the US would have still won the war in the Pacific. Even with most of her resources and manpower devoted to the War in Europe, America still managed to beat the Japanese. Quite handily really, once you get past Midway.